Simulation scenario 1

Setting description

Treatments equally effective across the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

PFS distributions

Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
—	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
–+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-+-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-++	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+–	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+-+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
++-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+++	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1

By signature:

signature	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power

graduation (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 12 9 11 TP53- 26 21 23 TP53+ 33 25 20 DRD+ 18 19 22 TEfus+ 20 18 20

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.024 0.018 0.022 TP53- 0.052 0.042 0.046 TP53+ 0.066 0.050 0.040 DRD+ 0.036 0.038 0.044 TEfus+ 0.040 0.036 0.040

futility (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 37 37 31 TP53- 158 182 162 TP53+ 152 183 159 DRD+ 86 84 137 TEfus+ 113 145 133

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.074 0.074 0.062 TP53- 0.316 0.364 0.324 TP53+ 0.304 0.366 0.318 DRD+ 0.172 0.168 0.274 TEfus+ 0.226 0.290 0.266

max sample size (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0 0 0 TP53- 59 60 66 TP53+ 9 18 12 DRD+ 0 0 0 TEfus+ 0 0 0

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.000 0.000 0.000 TP53- 0.118 0.120 0.132 TP53+ 0.018 0.036 0.024 DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000

Errors & power

The overall error was 0.362.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.162             0.138             0.136 

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:

signature	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	graduation	0	12	9	11
	futility	0	37	37	31
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	707 (613, 765)	344 (169, 479)	333 (179, 484)	331 (189, 471)
	n_unique	707 (613, 765)	344 (169, 479)	333 (179, 484)	331 (189, 471)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (60, 60)	60 (60, 60)	60 (60, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	33 (10, 53)	34 (8, 53)	34 (15, 52)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.5 (0.08, 0.9)	0.41 (0.07, 0.88)	0.44 (0.1, 0.89)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.022)	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.022 (0.019, 0.025)	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
TP53-	graduation	0	26	21	23
	futility	0	158	182	162
	max_n	0	59	60	66
	n	386 (328, 431)	195 (64, 301)	180 (59, 301)	181 (62, 301)
	n_unique	386 (328, 431)	195 (64, 301)	180 (59, 301)	181 (62, 301)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (21, 60)	60 (23, 60)	60 (21, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	28 (17, 51)	31 (19, 52)	30 (15, 49)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.5 (0.09, 0.88)	0.43 (0.1, 0.87)	0.47 (0.1, 0.88)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.023)	0.021 (0.019, 0.026)	0.022 (0.019, 0.026)	0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+	graduation	0	33	25	20
	futility	0	152	183	159
	max_n	0	9	18	12
	n	320 (266, 358)	146 (56, 253)	158 (60, 258)	144 (57, 248)
	n_unique	320 (266, 358)	146 (56, 253)	158 (60, 258)	144 (57, 248)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (25, 60)	60 (22, 60)	60 (26, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	32 (21, 53)	31 (18, 50)	34 (20, 53)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.48 (0.11, 0.9)	0.42 (0.07, 0.87)	0.44 (0.1, 0.88)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.023)	0.021 (0.018, 0.026)	0.022 (0.019, 0.027)	0.021 (0.018, 0.026)
DRD+	graduation	0	18	19	22
	futility	0	86	84	137
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	194 (151, 224)	78 (40, 133)	75 (39, 130)	106 (55, 160)
	n_unique	194 (151, 224)	78 (40, 133)	75 (39, 130)	106 (55, 160)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (44, 60)	60 (45, 60)	60 (29, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	44 (29, 56)	46 (30, 57)	35 (20, 49)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.48 (0.11, 0.89)	0.43 (0.09, 0.87)	0.45 (0.1, 0.88)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.021 (0.017, 0.027)	0.022 (0.017, 0.028)	0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+	graduation	0	20	18	20
	futility	0	113	145	133
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	258 (199, 293)	114 (51, 191)	116 (52, 191)	121 (54, 191)
	n_unique	258 (199, 293)	114 (51, 191)	116 (52, 191)	121 (54, 191)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (32, 60)	60 (28, 60)	60 (29, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	35 (26, 51)	34 (22, 53)	34 (23, 52)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.54 (0.09, 0.89)	0.44 (0.08, 0.86)	0.47 (0.11, 0.89)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.023)	0.021 (0.018, 0.027)	0.022 (0.019, 0.027)	0.022 (0.018, 0.026)

By subgroup combinations:

subtype	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
—	graduation	0	204	220	195
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	58	60	66
	n	215 (175, 245)	100 (32, 201)	94 (26, 187)	82 (19, 178)
	n_unique	215 (175, 245)	100 (32, 201)	94 (26, 187)	82 (19, 178)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.47 (0.1, 0.87)	0.49 (0.1, 0.87)	0.49 (0.08, 0.89)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.022 (0.018, 0.028)	0.022 (0.018, 0.029)	0.022 (0.018, 0.03)
–+	graduation	0	258	285	265
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	57	58	63
	n	62 (43, 77)	25 (7, 58)	26 (10, 60)	22 (7, 56)
	n_unique	62 (43, 77)	25 (7, 58)	26 (10, 60)	22 (7, 56)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.44 (0.12, 0.88)	0.47 (0.12, 0.84)	0.48 (0.14, 0.85)
	rate	0.021 (0.017, 0.026)	0.023 (0.016, 0.036)	0.023 (0.016, 0.034)	0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
-+-	graduation	0	202	225	193
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	9	18	12
	n	137 (110, 160)	59 (17, 126)	65 (22, 132)	52 (13, 120)
	n_unique	137 (110, 160)	59 (17, 126)	65 (22, 132)	52 (13, 120)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.45 (0.08, 0.89)	0.43 (0.09, 0.88)	0.45 (0.1, 0.83)
	rate	0.021 (0.018, 0.025)	0.022 (0.017, 0.031)	0.022 (0.018, 0.03)	0.022 (0.017, 0.032)
-++	graduation	0	257	306	275
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	9	18	12
	n	100 (69, 119)	38 (12, 93)	38 (17, 96)	38 (11, 88)
	n_unique	100 (69, 119)	38 (12, 93)	38 (17, 96)	38 (11, 88)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.52 (0.12, 0.88)	0.46 (0.11, 0.86)	0.48 (0.12, 0.89)
	rate	0.021 (0.017, 0.025)	0.021 (0.017, 0.031)	0.023 (0.018, 0.031)	0.022 (0.016, 0.031)
+–	graduation	0	265	275	266
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	56	58	60
	n	55 (39, 69)	20 (5, 48)	20 (5, 48)	27 (11, 54)
	n_unique	55 (39, 69)	20 (5, 48)	20 (5, 48)	27 (11, 54)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.47 (0.14, 0.85)	0.48 (0.14, 0.84)	0.48 (0.12, 0.85)
	rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.026)	0.022 (0.015, 0.036)	0.022 (0.015, 0.037)	0.022 (0.016, 0.032)
+-+	graduation	0	305	325	313
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	55	56	57
	n	55 (35, 69)	18 (5, 48)	18 (5, 46)	24 (11, 57)
	n_unique	55 (35, 69)	18 (5, 48)	18 (5, 46)	24 (11, 57)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.47 (0.12, 0.86)	0.45 (0.13, 0.86)	0.5 (0.11, 0.87)
	rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)	0.022 (0.015, 0.039)	0.023 (0.015, 0.037)	0.022 (0.017, 0.032)
++-	graduation	0	261	279	265
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	9	18	12
	n	42 (29, 53)	16 (4, 36)	16 (4, 36)	22 (8, 44)
	n_unique	42 (29, 53)	16 (4, 36)	16 (4, 36)	22 (8, 44)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.49 (0.15, 0.84)	0.47 (0.15, 0.86)	0.5 (0.11, 0.87)
	rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)	0.022 (0.014, 0.04)	0.022 (0.013, 0.041)	0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
+++	graduation	0	304	348	325
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	9	18	12
	n	41 (26, 54)	14 (4, 37)	13 (4, 35)	18 (8, 42)
	n_unique	41 (26, 54)	14 (4, 37)	13 (4, 35)	18 (8, 42)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.48 (0.17, 0.83)	0.44 (0.15, 0.82)	0.46 (0.15, 0.85)
	rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)	0.021 (0.013, 0.038)	0.022 (0.014, 0.043)	0.023 (0.016, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	count	12	9	11
	time_stop	30 (16, 47)	28 (16, 57)	25 (15, 45)
	n_trt	194 (122, 350)	202 (133, 270)	204 (102, 317)
	n_control	360 (169, 568)	337 (181, 625)	286 (155, 504)
	post_p	0.96 (0.93, 0.99)	0.94 (0.9, 0.98)	0.99 (0.98, 1)
	order	1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 2)
TP53-	count	26	21	23
	time_stop	29 (16, 56)	38 (20, 51)	29 (15, 52)
	n_trt	124 (58, 252)	151 (69, 237)	104 (55, 226)
	n_control	182 (95, 365)	237 (105, 326)	155 (87, 324)
	post_p	0.93 (0.86, 0.97)	0.96 (0.89, 0.99)	0.98 (0.93, 1)
	order	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 2)	1 (1, 3)
TP53+	count	33	25	20
	time_stop	31 (18, 55)	24 (16, 52)	34 (18, 51)
	n_trt	96 (51, 169)	89 (62, 211)	112 (58, 195)
	n_control	149 (83, 262)	126 (79, 289)	178 (85, 278)
	post_p	0.97 (0.92, 1)	0.96 (0.89, 0.99)	0.96 (0.91, 0.99)
	order	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 2)	1.5 (1, 3)
DRD+	count	18	19	22
	time_stop	44 (28, 56)	41 (31, 55)	38 (24, 49)
	n_trt	88 (52, 117)	67 (51, 127)	88 (66, 164)
	n_control	142 (96, 189)	140 (92, 172)	118 (62, 182)
	post_p	0.98 (0.95, 1)	0.97 (0.88, 0.99)	0.98 (0.92, 1)
	order	1 (1, 3.3)	1 (1, 2)	1.5 (1, 3.9)
TEfus+	count	20	18	20
	time_stop	36 (23, 46)	28 (18, 54)	34 (27, 51)
	n_trt	88 (54, 133)	90 (53, 178)	97 (70, 170)
	n_control	150 (93, 202)	98 (71, 219)	141 (106, 220)
	post_p	0.97 (0.91, 0.98)	0.96 (0.92, 0.99)	0.96 (0.91, 0.99)
	order	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 2.6)	1 (1, 3.1)

Futility:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	count	37	37	31
	time_stop	35 (10, 57)	35 (8, 52)	38 (17, 52)
	n_trt	164 (62, 269)	179 (60, 286)	185 (85, 279)
	n_control	388 (109, 637)	381 (86, 604)	456 (168, 594)
	post_p	0.05 (0, 0.18)	0.08 (0.02, 0.15)	0.03 (0, 0.1)
	order	3 (1, 7.4)	3 (1, 7.4)	4 (1, 7)
TP53-	count	158	182	162
	time_stop	28 (17, 47)	30 (19, 52)	30 (16, 48)
	n_trt	91 (53, 200)	94 (53, 191)	90 (51, 193)
	n_control	174 (99, 325)	202 (112, 340)	195 (94, 314)
	post_p	0.15 (0.04, 0.26)	0.14 (0.05, 0.27)	0.15 (0.03, 0.26)
	order	2 (1, 5)	2 (1, 5)	2 (1, 4)
TP53+	count	152	183	159
	time_stop	32 (22, 53)	32 (19, 50)	34 (20, 53)
	n_trt	76 (51, 154)	86 (52, 183)	80 (51, 158)
	n_control	171 (104, 281)	171 (91, 269)	182 (102, 280)
	post_p	0.15 (0.04, 0.26)	0.14 (0.04, 0.25)	0.13 (0.03, 0.25)
	order	3 (1, 6)	2 (1, 5)	3 (1, 6)
DRD+	count	86	84	137
	time_stop	45 (30, 56)	46 (31, 57)	35 (20, 49)
	n_trt	60 (51, 105)	67 (51, 91)	67 (51, 115)
	n_control	138 (106, 188)	146 (104, 197)	112 (64, 170)
	post_p	0.14 (0.03, 0.26)	0.14 (0.04, 0.24)	0.14 (0.04, 0.26)
	order	4 (2, 8)	4 (1.3, 6)	3 (1, 6)
TEfus+	count	113	145	133
	time_stop	35 (26, 52)	34 (22, 53)	34 (23, 52)
	n_trt	68 (50, 116)	78 (51, 131)	77 (51, 128)
	n_control	155 (105, 223)	142 (90, 233)	148 (88, 231)
	post_p	0.12 (0.03, 0.22)	0.17 (0.05, 0.26)	0.12 (0.04, 0.26)
	order	3 (2, 6)	3 (1, 6)	3 (1, 6)

By subgroup combinations

Graduation:

signature	treatment	var	—	–+	-+-	-++	+–	+-+	++-	+++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
		time	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)
		n	78 (56, 116)	16 (8, 39)	32 (15, 63)	30 (8, 44)	15 (4, 34)	13 (6, 38)	7 (3, 22)	8 (4, 24)
		post_p	0.75 (0.66, 0.92)	0.69 (0.57, 0.81)	0.72 (0.6, 0.96)	0.71 (0.58, 0.87)	0.61 (0.57, 0.76)	0.69 (0.59, 0.84)	0.65 (0.58, 0.84)	0.61 (0.56, 0.68)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.015 (0.011, 0.02)	0.012 (0.001, 0.019)	0.013 (0.006, 0.017)	0.014 (0, 0.019)	0.013 (0, 0.019)	0.013 (0, 0.016)	0 (0, 0.014)	0.015 (0, 0.02)
	Taxel_therapies	count	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
		time	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)	28 (16, 57)
		n	51 (34, 79)	16 (12, 31)	33 (24, 64)	31 (25, 66)	8 (5, 23)	11 (5, 14)	5 (2, 27)	10 (4, 17)
		post_p	0.64 (0.6, 0.76)	0.65 (0.59, 0.94)	0.62 (0.58, 0.79)	0.73 (0.59, 0.82)	0.69 (0.58, 0.78)	0.61 (0.56, 0.76)	0.62 (0.57, 0.77)	0.62 (0.55, 0.7)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.018 (0.013, 0.022)	0.016 (0, 0.024)	0.015 (0.01, 0.02)	0.015 (0.009, 0.018)	0.01 (0, 0.019)	0.009 (0, 0.019)	0 (0, 0.023)	0.009 (0, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
		time	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)	25 (15, 45)
		n	46 (25, 102)	12 (6, 36)	29 (11, 72)	17 (7, 38)	17 (12, 33)	18 (10, 35)	13 (6, 19)	13 (9, 24)
		post_p	0.76 (0.59, 0.92)	0.68 (0.6, 0.82)	0.69 (0.56, 0.81)	0.65 (0.57, 0.7)	0.77 (0.62, 0.86)	0.63 (0.58, 0.9)	0.66 (0.57, 0.86)	0.62 (0.57, 0.86)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.008 (0.005, 0.017)	0.005 (0, 0.012)	0.01 (0, 0.018)	0.013 (0, 0.018)	0.009 (0, 0.018)	0.01 (0, 0.015)	0.011 (0, 0.024)	0.01 (0, 0.023)
TP53-	Hormone_therapies	count	26	26			26	26
		time	29 (16, 56)	29 (16, 56)			29 (16, 56)	29 (16, 56)
		n	74 (34, 156)	19 (8, 51)			12 (4, 28)	10 (5, 30)
		post_p	0.79 (0.7, 0.89)	0.74 (0.63, 0.84)			0.72 (0.61, 0.82)	0.71 (0.62, 0.79)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.015 (0.007, 0.02)	0.012 (0, 0.02)			0.007 (0, 0.018)	0.008 (0, 0.018)
	Taxel_therapies	count	21	21			21	21
		time	38 (20, 51)	38 (20, 51)			38 (20, 51)	38 (20, 51)
		n	76 (41, 154)	22 (11, 41)			14 (6, 39)	14 (9, 36)
		post_p	0.79 (0.73, 0.91)	0.74 (0.71, 0.89)			0.75 (0.61, 0.81)	0.77 (0.61, 0.9)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.016 (0.01, 0.02)	0.013 (0.007, 0.019)			0.012 (0, 0.018)	0.009 (0, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count	23	23			23	23
		time	29 (15, 52)	29 (15, 52)			29 (15, 52)	29 (15, 52)
		n	47 (20, 132)	11 (6, 38)			19 (11, 29)	19 (9, 38)
		post_p	0.8 (0.72, 0.98)	0.75 (0.62, 0.85)			0.8 (0.72, 0.9)	0.78 (0.68, 0.89)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.013 (0.003, 0.018)	0.006 (0, 0.017)			0.015 (0.006, 0.021)	0.014 (0, 0.022)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			33	33			33	33
		time			31 (18, 55)	31 (18, 55)			31 (18, 55)	31 (18, 55)
		n			46 (20, 89)	30 (14, 60)			8 (4, 27)	8 (5, 20)
		post_p			0.81 (0.71, 0.98)	0.8 (0.71, 0.92)			0.73 (0.62, 0.89)	0.71 (0.61, 0.8)
		r_prob			0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.013 (0.004, 0.017)	0.012 (0, 0.019)			0 (0, 0.018)	0.008 (0, 0.019)
	Taxel_therapies	count			25	25			25	25
		time			24 (16, 52)	24 (16, 52)			24 (16, 52)	24 (16, 52)
		n			43 (24, 107)	31 (19, 70)			11 (5, 25)	8 (4, 21)
		post_p			0.81 (0.72, 0.91)	0.75 (0.71, 0.9)			0.7 (0.61, 0.89)	0.7 (0.61, 0.88)
		r_prob			0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.015 (0.007, 0.019)	0.013 (0.005, 0.02)			0.002 (0, 0.015)	0 (0, 0.017)
	Niraparib	count			20	20			20	20
		time			34 (18, 51)	34 (18, 51)			34 (18, 51)	34 (18, 51)
		n			38 (15, 85)	26 (14, 67)			18 (10, 33)	18 (9, 32)
		post_p			0.77 (0.71, 0.96)	0.75 (0.7, 0.86)			0.78 (0.68, 0.86)	0.74 (0.66, 0.87)
		r_prob			0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate			0.011 (0.005, 0.018)	0.012 (0, 0.019)			0.015 (0, 0.02)	0.013 (0, 0.022)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					18	18	18	18
		time					44 (28, 56)	44 (28, 56)	44 (28, 56)	44 (28, 56)
		n					21 (13, 32)	28 (12, 44)	14 (8, 28)	18 (7, 34)
		post_p					0.78 (0.71, 0.89)	0.8 (0.7, 0.96)	0.74 (0.66, 0.85)	0.79 (0.69, 0.9)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.013 (0.002, 0.02)	0.012 (0.006, 0.018)	0.012 (0, 0.02)	0.012 (0, 0.019)
	Taxel_therapies	count					19	19	19	19
		time					41 (31, 55)	41 (31, 55)	41 (31, 55)	41 (31, 55)
		n					18 (7, 46)	22 (11, 37)	15 (7, 30)	14 (6, 30)
		post_p					0.76 (0.68, 0.88)	0.78 (0.71, 0.86)	0.75 (0.67, 0.84)	0.73 (0.62, 0.93)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.013 (0, 0.017)	0.011 (0.008, 0.018)	0.01 (0.005, 0.016)	0.013 (0.005, 0.022)
	Niraparib	count					22	22	22	22
		time					38 (24, 49)	38 (24, 49)	38 (24, 49)	38 (24, 49)
		n					26 (17, 53)	24 (12, 47)	21 (9, 40)	18 (9, 32)
		post_p					0.79 (0.71, 0.9)	0.78 (0.71, 0.94)	0.8 (0.7, 0.96)	0.8 (0.7, 0.92)
		r_prob					0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate					0.015 (0.009, 0.019)	0.016 (0.01, 0.02)	0.015 (0, 0.02)	0.014 (0.008, 0.02)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		20		20		20		20
		time		36 (23, 46)		36 (23, 46)		36 (23, 46)		36 (23, 46)
		n		22 (14, 48)		30 (21, 65)		16 (7, 29)		8 (6, 17)
		post_p		0.8 (0.71, 0.89)		0.79 (0.71, 0.88)		0.72 (0.62, 0.83)		0.74 (0.61, 0.85)
		r_prob		0.19 (0.19, 0.19)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.012 (0.004, 0.016)		0.014 (0.009, 0.015)		0.012 (0, 0.018)		0.008 (0, 0.018)
	Taxel_therapies	count		18		18		18		18
		time		28 (18, 54)		28 (18, 54)		28 (18, 54)		28 (18, 54)
		n		25 (13, 38)		41 (24, 80)		13 (5, 30)		9 (4, 25)
		post_p		0.77 (0.71, 0.91)		0.79 (0.73, 0.91)		0.71 (0.61, 0.94)		0.69 (0.61, 0.77)
		r_prob		0.38 (0.38, 0.38)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.012 (0.005, 0.02)		0.012 (0.006, 0.018)		0.008 (0, 0.017)		0.003 (0, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count		20		20		20		20
		time		34 (27, 51)		34 (27, 51)		34 (27, 51)		34 (27, 51)
		n		25 (11, 50)		36 (22, 57)		22 (12, 45)		17 (9, 34)
		post_p		0.76 (0.71, 0.88)		0.8 (0.72, 0.94)		0.79 (0.7, 0.86)		0.75 (0.67, 0.9)
		r_prob		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate		0.011 (0.004, 0.017)		0.014 (0.007, 0.017)		0.016 (0.008, 0.022)		0.016 (0.01, 0.02)

Futility:

signature	treatment	var	—	–+	-+-	-++	+–	+-+	++-	+++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
		time	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)	35 (10, 57)
		n	41 (25, 96)	10 (6, 26)	32 (10, 79)	17 (4, 38)	7 (2, 20)	9 (2, 20)	5 (3, 22)	5 (2, 16)
		post_p	0.33 (0.11, 0.46)	0.35 (0.13, 0.48)	0.3 (0.19, 0.45)	0.29 (0.07, 0.43)	0.37 (0.09, 0.48)	0.38 (0.14, 0.49)	0.42 (0.26, 0.48)	0.29 (0.09, 0.45)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.022 (0.014, 0.028)	0.026 (0.016, 0.045)	0.023 (0.018, 0.035)	0.027 (0.019, 0.049)	0.025 (0, 0.043)	0.023 (0.004, 0.044)	0.023 (0, 0.043)	0.026 (0.011, 0.097)
	Taxel_therapies	count	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
		time	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)	35 (8, 52)
		n	32 (14, 108)	15 (8, 28)	26 (12, 91)	24 (12, 66)	8 (1, 16)	6 (1, 18)	6 (0, 16)	7 (1, 29)
		post_p	0.36 (0.19, 0.49)	0.37 (0.1, 0.47)	0.32 (0.1, 0.43)	0.37 (0.21, 0.48)	0.41 (0.14, 0.48)	0.4 (0.17, 0.46)	0.37 (0.15, 0.47)	0.4 (0.16, 0.47)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.023 (0.019, 0.029)	0.025 (0.017, 0.044)	0.022 (0.017, 0.033)	0.024 (0.017, 0.03)	0.024 (0, 0.043)	0.025 (0, 0.042)	0.024 (0, 0.047)	0.025 (0, 0.049)
	Niraparib	count	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
		time	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)	38 (17, 52)
		n	30 (11, 119)	12 (5, 25)	23 (8, 82)	15 (6, 42)	12 (7, 29)	17 (9, 40)	13 (5, 24)	14 (7, 33)
		post_p	0.32 (0.1, 0.47)	0.35 (0.16, 0.44)	0.39 (0.18, 0.49)	0.35 (0.1, 0.48)	0.33 (0.07, 0.44)	0.35 (0.12, 0.47)	0.3 (0.1, 0.45)	0.29 (0.1, 0.49)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.023 (0.019, 0.032)	0.029 (0.018, 0.042)	0.022 (0.017, 0.036)	0.024 (0.016, 0.03)	0.026 (0.019, 0.04)	0.024 (0.014, 0.032)	0.026 (0.019, 0.046)	0.024 (0.019, 0.036)
TP53-	Hormone_therapies	count	158	158			158	158
		time	28 (17, 47)	28 (17, 47)			28 (17, 47)	28 (17, 47)
		n	51 (27, 116)	14 (7, 35)			10 (4, 28)	10 (4, 30)
		post_p	0.33 (0.1, 0.47)	0.32 (0.13, 0.48)			0.36 (0.17, 0.48)	0.38 (0.17, 0.47)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)	0.023 (0.015, 0.046)			0.025 (0.014, 0.049)	0.025 (0.015, 0.049)
	Taxel_therapies	count	182	182			182	182
		time	30 (19, 52)	30 (19, 52)			30 (19, 52)	30 (19, 52)
		n	44 (22, 133)	16 (8, 40)			12 (4, 30)	11 (4, 26)
		post_p	0.31 (0.11, 0.47)	0.35 (0.12, 0.47)			0.36 (0.17, 0.48)	0.37 (0.19, 0.48)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.022 (0.016, 0.03)	0.024 (0.015, 0.038)			0.025 (0.016, 0.048)	0.025 (0.015, 0.054)
	Niraparib	count	162	162			162	162
		time	30 (16, 48)	30 (16, 48)			30 (16, 48)	30 (16, 48)
		n	34 (15, 98)	12 (5, 34)			16 (10, 36)	16 (9, 35)
		post_p	0.36 (0.12, 0.47)	0.35 (0.13, 0.48)			0.35 (0.16, 0.48)	0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.03)	0.026 (0.015, 0.047)			0.022 (0.015, 0.037)	0.024 (0.015, 0.037)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			152	152			152	152
		time			32 (22, 53)	32 (22, 53)			32 (22, 53)	32 (22, 53)
		n			33 (14, 85)	24 (9, 52)			9 (4, 24)	8 (3, 20)
		post_p			0.34 (0.12, 0.48)	0.33 (0.12, 0.47)			0.38 (0.18, 0.48)	0.35 (0.16, 0.47)
		r_prob			0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.022 (0.016, 0.03)	0.023 (0.017, 0.038)			0.024 (0.014, 0.058)	0.025 (0.015, 0.058)
	Taxel_therapies	count			183	183			183	183
		time			32 (19, 50)	32 (19, 50)			32 (19, 50)	32 (19, 50)
		n			36 (18, 98)	27 (15, 64)			8 (3, 24)	9 (3, 24)
		post_p			0.31 (0.11, 0.47)	0.34 (0.12, 0.48)			0.37 (0.15, 0.48)	0.38 (0.18, 0.49)
		r_prob			0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.022 (0.017, 0.029)	0.023 (0.016, 0.032)			0.025 (0.017, 0.055)	0.023 (0.013, 0.05)
	Niraparib	count			159	159			159	159
		time			34 (20, 53)	34 (20, 53)			34 (20, 53)	34 (20, 53)
		n			25 (9, 78)	21 (9, 56)			13 (7, 28)	14 (7, 28)
		post_p			0.3 (0.11, 0.47)	0.36 (0.15, 0.48)			0.36 (0.13, 0.49)	0.36 (0.15, 0.49)
		r_prob			0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate			0.022 (0.017, 0.036)	0.022 (0.017, 0.032)			0.025 (0.017, 0.046)	0.024 (0.015, 0.037)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					86	86	86	86
		time					45 (30, 56)	45 (30, 56)	45 (30, 56)	45 (30, 56)
		n					17 (7, 37)	18 (7, 40)	13 (5, 26)	13 (4, 26)
		post_p					0.35 (0.16, 0.48)	0.35 (0.14, 0.47)	0.39 (0.19, 0.48)	0.33 (0.16, 0.47)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.024 (0.016, 0.041)	0.023 (0.017, 0.041)	0.025 (0.017, 0.052)	0.024 (0.017, 0.042)
	Taxel_therapies	count					84	84	84	84
		time					46 (31, 57)	46 (31, 57)	46 (31, 57)	46 (31, 57)
		n					20 (8, 34)	18 (7, 35)	12 (4, 27)	12 (5, 29)
		post_p					0.36 (0.15, 0.49)	0.38 (0.17, 0.47)	0.35 (0.14, 0.48)	0.34 (0.15, 0.48)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.023 (0.016, 0.034)	0.024 (0.017, 0.037)	0.028 (0.019, 0.048)	0.024 (0.017, 0.046)
	Niraparib	count					137	137	137	137
		time					35 (20, 49)	35 (20, 49)	35 (20, 49)	35 (20, 49)
		n					18 (11, 38)	19 (11, 35)	14 (8, 29)	14 (8, 29)
		post_p					0.39 (0.11, 0.49)	0.36 (0.14, 0.48)	0.36 (0.12, 0.47)	0.37 (0.19, 0.48)
		r_prob					0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate					0.024 (0.017, 0.033)	0.023 (0.017, 0.035)	0.024 (0.017, 0.04)	0.023 (0.015, 0.035)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		113		113		113		113
		time		35 (26, 52)		35 (26, 52)		35 (26, 52)		35 (26, 52)
		n		16 (6, 38)		29 (12, 45)		13 (5, 35)		10 (3, 24)
		post_p		0.36 (0.14, 0.48)		0.33 (0.1, 0.48)		0.35 (0.13, 0.46)		0.28 (0.15, 0.48)
		r_prob		0.19 (0.19, 0.19)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.024 (0.017, 0.041)		0.023 (0.017, 0.034)		0.024 (0.017, 0.047)		0.026 (0.016, 0.063)
	Taxel_therapies	count		145		145		145		145
		time		34 (22, 53)		34 (22, 53)		34 (22, 53)		34 (22, 53)
		n		19 (9, 41)		28 (16, 68)		12 (5, 29)		10 (4, 25)
		post_p		0.34 (0.1, 0.47)		0.36 (0.14, 0.48)		0.38 (0.17, 0.47)		0.38 (0.17, 0.47)
		r_prob		0.38 (0.38, 0.38)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.024 (0.017, 0.04)		0.022 (0.016, 0.03)		0.024 (0.017, 0.039)		0.023 (0.014, 0.04)
	Niraparib	count		133		133		133		133
		time		34 (23, 52)		34 (23, 52)		34 (23, 52)		34 (23, 52)
		n		15 (5, 38)		24 (11, 56)		19 (10, 38)		15 (8, 32)
		post_p		0.36 (0.15, 0.47)		0.33 (0.12, 0.47)		0.37 (0.15, 0.47)		0.36 (0.17, 0.48)
		r_prob		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate		0.025 (0.017, 0.044)		0.022 (0.015, 0.032)		0.023 (0.016, 0.034)		0.023 (0.015, 0.036)