Setting description

Treatments equally effective across the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 12 9 11
TP53- 26 21 23
TP53+ 33 25 20
DRD+ 18 19 22
TEfus+ 20 18 20
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.024 0.018 0.022
TP53- 0.052 0.042 0.046
TP53+ 0.066 0.050 0.040
DRD+ 0.036 0.038 0.044
TEfus+ 0.040 0.036 0.040
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 37 37 31
TP53- 158 182 162
TP53+ 152 183 159
DRD+ 86 84 137
TEfus+ 113 145 133
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.074 0.074 0.062
TP53- 0.316 0.364 0.324
TP53+ 0.304 0.366 0.318
DRD+ 0.172 0.168 0.274
TEfus+ 0.226 0.290 0.266
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 59 60 66
TP53+ 9 18 12
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.118 0.120 0.132
TP53+ 0.018 0.036 0.024
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.362.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.162             0.138             0.136 

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 12 9 11
futility 0 37 37 31
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 707 (613, 765) 344 (169, 479) 333 (179, 484) 331 (189, 471)
n_unique 707 (613, 765) 344 (169, 479) 333 (179, 484) 331 (189, 471)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (10, 53) 34 (8, 53) 34 (15, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.08, 0.9) 0.41 (0.07, 0.88) 0.44 (0.1, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
TP53- graduation 0 26 21 23
futility 0 158 182 162
max_n 0 59 60 66
n 386 (328, 431) 195 (64, 301) 180 (59, 301) 181 (62, 301)
n_unique 386 (328, 431) 195 (64, 301) 180 (59, 301) 181 (62, 301)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (23, 60) 60 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (17, 51) 31 (19, 52) 30 (15, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.09, 0.88) 0.43 (0.1, 0.87) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 33 25 20
futility 0 152 183 159
max_n 0 9 18 12
n 320 (266, 358) 146 (56, 253) 158 (60, 258) 144 (57, 248)
n_unique 320 (266, 358) 146 (56, 253) 158 (60, 258) 144 (57, 248)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (26, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 32 (21, 53) 31 (18, 50) 34 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.11, 0.9) 0.42 (0.07, 0.87) 0.44 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026)
DRD+ graduation 0 18 19 22
futility 0 86 84 137
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 194 (151, 224) 78 (40, 133) 75 (39, 130) 106 (55, 160)
n_unique 194 (151, 224) 78 (40, 133) 75 (39, 130) 106 (55, 160)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (44, 60) 60 (45, 60) 60 (29, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (29, 56) 46 (30, 57) 35 (20, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.11, 0.89) 0.43 (0.09, 0.87) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 20 18 20
futility 0 113 145 133
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 258 (199, 293) 114 (51, 191) 116 (52, 191) 121 (54, 191)
n_unique 258 (199, 293) 114 (51, 191) 116 (52, 191) 121 (54, 191)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (32, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (29, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (26, 51) 34 (22, 53) 34 (23, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.54 (0.09, 0.89) 0.44 (0.08, 0.86) 0.47 (0.11, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
graduation 0 204 220 195
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 58 60 66
n 215 (175, 245) 100 (32, 201) 94 (26, 187) 82 (19, 178)
n_unique 215 (175, 245) 100 (32, 201) 94 (26, 187) 82 (19, 178)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.87) 0.49 (0.1, 0.87) 0.49 (0.08, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03)
–+ graduation 0 258 285 265
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 57 58 63
n 62 (43, 77) 25 (7, 58) 26 (10, 60) 22 (7, 56)
n_unique 62 (43, 77) 25 (7, 58) 26 (10, 60) 22 (7, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.12, 0.88) 0.47 (0.12, 0.84) 0.48 (0.14, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.023 (0.016, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
-+- graduation 0 202 225 193
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 18 12
n 137 (110, 160) 59 (17, 126) 65 (22, 132) 52 (13, 120)
n_unique 137 (110, 160) 59 (17, 126) 65 (22, 132) 52 (13, 120)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.08, 0.89) 0.43 (0.09, 0.88) 0.45 (0.1, 0.83)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032)
-++ graduation 0 257 306 275
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 18 12
n 100 (69, 119) 38 (12, 93) 38 (17, 96) 38 (11, 88)
n_unique 100 (69, 119) 38 (12, 93) 38 (17, 96) 38 (11, 88)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.52 (0.12, 0.88) 0.46 (0.11, 0.86) 0.48 (0.12, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031) 0.023 (0.018, 0.031) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031)
+– graduation 0 265 275 266
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 56 58 60
n 55 (39, 69) 20 (5, 48) 20 (5, 48) 27 (11, 54)
n_unique 55 (39, 69) 20 (5, 48) 20 (5, 48) 27 (11, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.14, 0.85) 0.48 (0.14, 0.84) 0.48 (0.12, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032)
+-+ graduation 0 305 325 313
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 55 56 57
n 55 (35, 69) 18 (5, 48) 18 (5, 46) 24 (11, 57)
n_unique 55 (35, 69) 18 (5, 48) 18 (5, 46) 24 (11, 57)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.12, 0.86) 0.45 (0.13, 0.86) 0.5 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.039) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032)
++- graduation 0 261 279 265
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 18 12
n 42 (29, 53) 16 (4, 36) 16 (4, 36) 22 (8, 44)
n_unique 42 (29, 53) 16 (4, 36) 16 (4, 36) 22 (8, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.15, 0.84) 0.47 (0.15, 0.86) 0.5 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.04) 0.022 (0.013, 0.041) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
+++ graduation 0 304 348 325
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 18 12
n 41 (26, 54) 14 (4, 37) 13 (4, 35) 18 (8, 42)
n_unique 41 (26, 54) 14 (4, 37) 13 (4, 35) 18 (8, 42)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.17, 0.83) 0.44 (0.15, 0.82) 0.46 (0.15, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.021 (0.013, 0.038) 0.022 (0.014, 0.043) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 12 9 11
time_stop 30 (16, 47) 28 (16, 57) 25 (15, 45)
n_trt 194 (122, 350) 202 (133, 270) 204 (102, 317)
n_control 360 (169, 568) 337 (181, 625) 286 (155, 504)
post_p 0.96 (0.93, 0.99) 0.94 (0.9, 0.98) 0.99 (0.98, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TP53- count 26 21 23
time_stop 29 (16, 56) 38 (20, 51) 29 (15, 52)
n_trt 124 (58, 252) 151 (69, 237) 104 (55, 226)
n_control 182 (95, 365) 237 (105, 326) 155 (87, 324)
post_p 0.93 (0.86, 0.97) 0.96 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 33 25 20
time_stop 31 (18, 55) 24 (16, 52) 34 (18, 51)
n_trt 96 (51, 169) 89 (62, 211) 112 (58, 195)
n_control 149 (83, 262) 126 (79, 289) 178 (85, 278)
post_p 0.97 (0.92, 1) 0.96 (0.89, 0.99) 0.96 (0.91, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2) 1.5 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 18 19 22
time_stop 44 (28, 56) 41 (31, 55) 38 (24, 49)
n_trt 88 (52, 117) 67 (51, 127) 88 (66, 164)
n_control 142 (96, 189) 140 (92, 172) 118 (62, 182)
post_p 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.97 (0.88, 0.99) 0.98 (0.92, 1)
order 1 (1, 3.3) 1 (1, 2) 1.5 (1, 3.9)
TEfus+ count 20 18 20
time_stop 36 (23, 46) 28 (18, 54) 34 (27, 51)
n_trt 88 (54, 133) 90 (53, 178) 97 (70, 170)
n_control 150 (93, 202) 98 (71, 219) 141 (106, 220)
post_p 0.97 (0.91, 0.98) 0.96 (0.92, 0.99) 0.96 (0.91, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2.6) 1 (1, 3.1)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 37 37 31
time_stop 35 (10, 57) 35 (8, 52) 38 (17, 52)
n_trt 164 (62, 269) 179 (60, 286) 185 (85, 279)
n_control 388 (109, 637) 381 (86, 604) 456 (168, 594)
post_p 0.05 (0, 0.18) 0.08 (0.02, 0.15) 0.03 (0, 0.1)
order 3 (1, 7.4) 3 (1, 7.4) 4 (1, 7)
TP53- count 158 182 162
time_stop 28 (17, 47) 30 (19, 52) 30 (16, 48)
n_trt 91 (53, 200) 94 (53, 191) 90 (51, 193)
n_control 174 (99, 325) 202 (112, 340) 195 (94, 314)
post_p 0.15 (0.04, 0.26) 0.14 (0.05, 0.27) 0.15 (0.03, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 152 183 159
time_stop 32 (22, 53) 32 (19, 50) 34 (20, 53)
n_trt 76 (51, 154) 86 (52, 183) 80 (51, 158)
n_control 171 (104, 281) 171 (91, 269) 182 (102, 280)
post_p 0.15 (0.04, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.25) 0.13 (0.03, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 6) 2 (1, 5) 3 (1, 6)
DRD+ count 86 84 137
time_stop 45 (30, 56) 46 (31, 57) 35 (20, 49)
n_trt 60 (51, 105) 67 (51, 91) 67 (51, 115)
n_control 138 (106, 188) 146 (104, 197) 112 (64, 170)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.24) 0.14 (0.04, 0.26)
order 4 (2, 8) 4 (1.3, 6) 3 (1, 6)
TEfus+ count 113 145 133
time_stop 35 (26, 52) 34 (22, 53) 34 (23, 52)
n_trt 68 (50, 116) 78 (51, 131) 77 (51, 128)
n_control 155 (105, 223) 142 (90, 233) 148 (88, 231)
post_p 0.12 (0.03, 0.22) 0.17 (0.05, 0.26) 0.12 (0.04, 0.26)
order 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
time 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47)
n 78 (56, 116) 16 (8, 39) 32 (15, 63) 30 (8, 44) 15 (4, 34) 13 (6, 38) 7 (3, 22) 8 (4, 24)
post_p 0.75 (0.66, 0.92) 0.69 (0.57, 0.81) 0.72 (0.6, 0.96) 0.71 (0.58, 0.87) 0.61 (0.57, 0.76) 0.69 (0.59, 0.84) 0.65 (0.58, 0.84) 0.61 (0.56, 0.68)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.011, 0.02) 0.012 (0.001, 0.019) 0.013 (0.006, 0.017) 0.014 (0, 0.019) 0.013 (0, 0.019) 0.013 (0, 0.016) 0 (0, 0.014) 0.015 (0, 0.02)
Taxel_therapies count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
time 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57) 28 (16, 57)
n 51 (34, 79) 16 (12, 31) 33 (24, 64) 31 (25, 66) 8 (5, 23) 11 (5, 14) 5 (2, 27) 10 (4, 17)
post_p 0.64 (0.6, 0.76) 0.65 (0.59, 0.94) 0.62 (0.58, 0.79) 0.73 (0.59, 0.82) 0.69 (0.58, 0.78) 0.61 (0.56, 0.76) 0.62 (0.57, 0.77) 0.62 (0.55, 0.7)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.022) 0.016 (0, 0.024) 0.015 (0.01, 0.02) 0.015 (0.009, 0.018) 0.01 (0, 0.019) 0.009 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.023) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
time 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45) 25 (15, 45)
n 46 (25, 102) 12 (6, 36) 29 (11, 72) 17 (7, 38) 17 (12, 33) 18 (10, 35) 13 (6, 19) 13 (9, 24)
post_p 0.76 (0.59, 0.92) 0.68 (0.6, 0.82) 0.69 (0.56, 0.81) 0.65 (0.57, 0.7) 0.77 (0.62, 0.86) 0.63 (0.58, 0.9) 0.66 (0.57, 0.86) 0.62 (0.57, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.005, 0.017) 0.005 (0, 0.012) 0.01 (0, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.018) 0.01 (0, 0.015) 0.011 (0, 0.024) 0.01 (0, 0.023)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 26 26 26 26
time 29 (16, 56) 29 (16, 56) 29 (16, 56) 29 (16, 56)
n 74 (34, 156) 19 (8, 51) 12 (4, 28) 10 (5, 30)
post_p 0.79 (0.7, 0.89) 0.74 (0.63, 0.84) 0.72 (0.61, 0.82) 0.71 (0.62, 0.79)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.012 (0, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 21 21 21 21
time 38 (20, 51) 38 (20, 51) 38 (20, 51) 38 (20, 51)
n 76 (41, 154) 22 (11, 41) 14 (6, 39) 14 (9, 36)
post_p 0.79 (0.73, 0.91) 0.74 (0.71, 0.89) 0.75 (0.61, 0.81) 0.77 (0.61, 0.9)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 23 23 23 23
time 29 (15, 52) 29 (15, 52) 29 (15, 52) 29 (15, 52)
n 47 (20, 132) 11 (6, 38) 19 (11, 29) 19 (9, 38)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.98) 0.75 (0.62, 0.85) 0.8 (0.72, 0.9) 0.78 (0.68, 0.89)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.003, 0.018) 0.006 (0, 0.017) 0.015 (0.006, 0.021) 0.014 (0, 0.022)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 33 33 33 33
time 31 (18, 55) 31 (18, 55) 31 (18, 55) 31 (18, 55)
n 46 (20, 89) 30 (14, 60) 8 (4, 27) 8 (5, 20)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.98) 0.8 (0.71, 0.92) 0.73 (0.62, 0.89) 0.71 (0.61, 0.8)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.004, 0.017) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.019)
Taxel_therapies count 25 25 25 25
time 24 (16, 52) 24 (16, 52) 24 (16, 52) 24 (16, 52)
n 43 (24, 107) 31 (19, 70) 11 (5, 25) 8 (4, 21)
post_p 0.81 (0.72, 0.91) 0.75 (0.71, 0.9) 0.7 (0.61, 0.89) 0.7 (0.61, 0.88)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.019) 0.013 (0.005, 0.02) 0.002 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.017)
Niraparib count 20 20 20 20
time 34 (18, 51) 34 (18, 51) 34 (18, 51) 34 (18, 51)
n 38 (15, 85) 26 (14, 67) 18 (10, 33) 18 (9, 32)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.96) 0.75 (0.7, 0.86) 0.78 (0.68, 0.86) 0.74 (0.66, 0.87)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.011 (0.005, 0.018) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.015 (0, 0.02) 0.013 (0, 0.022)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 18 18 18 18
time 44 (28, 56) 44 (28, 56) 44 (28, 56) 44 (28, 56)
n 21 (13, 32) 28 (12, 44) 14 (8, 28) 18 (7, 34)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.89) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.74 (0.66, 0.85) 0.79 (0.69, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.002, 0.02) 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) 0.012 (0, 0.02) 0.012 (0, 0.019)
Taxel_therapies count 19 19 19 19
time 41 (31, 55) 41 (31, 55) 41 (31, 55) 41 (31, 55)
n 18 (7, 46) 22 (11, 37) 15 (7, 30) 14 (6, 30)
post_p 0.76 (0.68, 0.88) 0.78 (0.71, 0.86) 0.75 (0.67, 0.84) 0.73 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0, 0.017) 0.011 (0.008, 0.018) 0.01 (0.005, 0.016) 0.013 (0.005, 0.022)
Niraparib count 22 22 22 22
time 38 (24, 49) 38 (24, 49) 38 (24, 49) 38 (24, 49)
n 26 (17, 53) 24 (12, 47) 21 (9, 40) 18 (9, 32)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.9) 0.78 (0.71, 0.94) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.8 (0.7, 0.92)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.015 (0, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.02)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 20 20 20 20
time 36 (23, 46) 36 (23, 46) 36 (23, 46) 36 (23, 46)
n 22 (14, 48) 30 (21, 65) 16 (7, 29) 8 (6, 17)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.89) 0.79 (0.71, 0.88) 0.72 (0.62, 0.83) 0.74 (0.61, 0.85)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.004, 0.016) 0.014 (0.009, 0.015) 0.012 (0, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 18 18 18 18
time 28 (18, 54) 28 (18, 54) 28 (18, 54) 28 (18, 54)
n 25 (13, 38) 41 (24, 80) 13 (5, 30) 9 (4, 25)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.79 (0.73, 0.91) 0.71 (0.61, 0.94) 0.69 (0.61, 0.77)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.005, 0.02) 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.003 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 20 20 20 20
time 34 (27, 51) 34 (27, 51) 34 (27, 51) 34 (27, 51)
n 25 (11, 50) 36 (22, 57) 22 (12, 45) 17 (9, 34)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.88) 0.8 (0.72, 0.94) 0.79 (0.7, 0.86) 0.75 (0.67, 0.9)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.011 (0.004, 0.017) 0.014 (0.007, 0.017) 0.016 (0.008, 0.022) 0.016 (0.01, 0.02)
Futility:
signature treatment var –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
time 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57) 35 (10, 57)
n 41 (25, 96) 10 (6, 26) 32 (10, 79) 17 (4, 38) 7 (2, 20) 9 (2, 20) 5 (3, 22) 5 (2, 16)
post_p 0.33 (0.11, 0.46) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.3 (0.19, 0.45) 0.29 (0.07, 0.43) 0.37 (0.09, 0.48) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49) 0.42 (0.26, 0.48) 0.29 (0.09, 0.45)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.028) 0.026 (0.016, 0.045) 0.023 (0.018, 0.035) 0.027 (0.019, 0.049) 0.025 (0, 0.043) 0.023 (0.004, 0.044) 0.023 (0, 0.043) 0.026 (0.011, 0.097)
Taxel_therapies count 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
time 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52) 35 (8, 52)
n 32 (14, 108) 15 (8, 28) 26 (12, 91) 24 (12, 66) 8 (1, 16) 6 (1, 18) 6 (0, 16) 7 (1, 29)
post_p 0.36 (0.19, 0.49) 0.37 (0.1, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.43) 0.37 (0.21, 0.48) 0.41 (0.14, 0.48) 0.4 (0.17, 0.46) 0.37 (0.15, 0.47) 0.4 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.019, 0.029) 0.025 (0.017, 0.044) 0.022 (0.017, 0.033) 0.024 (0.017, 0.03) 0.024 (0, 0.043) 0.025 (0, 0.042) 0.024 (0, 0.047) 0.025 (0, 0.049)
Niraparib count 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
time 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52) 38 (17, 52)
n 30 (11, 119) 12 (5, 25) 23 (8, 82) 15 (6, 42) 12 (7, 29) 17 (9, 40) 13 (5, 24) 14 (7, 33)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.35 (0.16, 0.44) 0.39 (0.18, 0.49) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48) 0.33 (0.07, 0.44) 0.35 (0.12, 0.47) 0.3 (0.1, 0.45) 0.29 (0.1, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.019, 0.032) 0.029 (0.018, 0.042) 0.022 (0.017, 0.036) 0.024 (0.016, 0.03) 0.026 (0.019, 0.04) 0.024 (0.014, 0.032) 0.026 (0.019, 0.046) 0.024 (0.019, 0.036)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 158 158 158 158
time 28 (17, 47) 28 (17, 47) 28 (17, 47) 28 (17, 47)
n 51 (27, 116) 14 (7, 35) 10 (4, 28) 10 (4, 30)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.32 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.17, 0.48) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.023 (0.015, 0.046) 0.025 (0.014, 0.049) 0.025 (0.015, 0.049)
Taxel_therapies count 182 182 182 182
time 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52) 30 (19, 52)
n 44 (22, 133) 16 (8, 40) 12 (4, 30) 11 (4, 26)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.47) 0.36 (0.17, 0.48) 0.37 (0.19, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.024 (0.015, 0.038) 0.025 (0.016, 0.048) 0.025 (0.015, 0.054)
Niraparib count 162 162 162 162
time 30 (16, 48) 30 (16, 48) 30 (16, 48) 30 (16, 48)
n 34 (15, 98) 12 (5, 34) 16 (10, 36) 16 (9, 35)
post_p 0.36 (0.12, 0.47) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.35 (0.16, 0.48) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.03) 0.026 (0.015, 0.047) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.024 (0.015, 0.037)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 152 152 152 152
time 32 (22, 53) 32 (22, 53) 32 (22, 53) 32 (22, 53)
n 33 (14, 85) 24 (9, 52) 9 (4, 24) 8 (3, 20)
post_p 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.33 (0.12, 0.47) 0.38 (0.18, 0.48) 0.35 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.017, 0.038) 0.024 (0.014, 0.058) 0.025 (0.015, 0.058)
Taxel_therapies count 183 183 183 183
time 32 (19, 50) 32 (19, 50) 32 (19, 50) 32 (19, 50)
n 36 (18, 98) 27 (15, 64) 8 (3, 24) 9 (3, 24)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.47) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48) 0.38 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032) 0.025 (0.017, 0.055) 0.023 (0.013, 0.05)
Niraparib count 159 159 159 159
time 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53)
n 25 (9, 78) 21 (9, 56) 13 (7, 28) 14 (7, 28)
post_p 0.3 (0.11, 0.47) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.49) 0.36 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.036) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.025 (0.017, 0.046) 0.024 (0.015, 0.037)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 86 86 86 86
time 45 (30, 56) 45 (30, 56) 45 (30, 56) 45 (30, 56)
n 17 (7, 37) 18 (7, 40) 13 (5, 26) 13 (4, 26)
post_p 0.35 (0.16, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.47) 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.33 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.016, 0.041) 0.023 (0.017, 0.041) 0.025 (0.017, 0.052) 0.024 (0.017, 0.042)
Taxel_therapies count 84 84 84 84
time 46 (31, 57) 46 (31, 57) 46 (31, 57) 46 (31, 57)
n 20 (8, 34) 18 (7, 35) 12 (4, 27) 12 (5, 29)
post_p 0.36 (0.15, 0.49) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47) 0.35 (0.14, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037) 0.028 (0.019, 0.048) 0.024 (0.017, 0.046)
Niraparib count 137 137 137 137
time 35 (20, 49) 35 (20, 49) 35 (20, 49) 35 (20, 49)
n 18 (11, 38) 19 (11, 35) 14 (8, 29) 14 (8, 29)
post_p 0.39 (0.11, 0.49) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.47) 0.37 (0.19, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.033) 0.023 (0.017, 0.035) 0.024 (0.017, 0.04) 0.023 (0.015, 0.035)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 113 113 113 113
time 35 (26, 52) 35 (26, 52) 35 (26, 52) 35 (26, 52)
n 16 (6, 38) 29 (12, 45) 13 (5, 35) 10 (3, 24)
post_p 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.46) 0.28 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.041) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.024 (0.017, 0.047) 0.026 (0.016, 0.063)
Taxel_therapies count 145 145 145 145
time 34 (22, 53) 34 (22, 53) 34 (22, 53) 34 (22, 53)
n 19 (9, 41) 28 (16, 68) 12 (5, 29) 10 (4, 25)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.04) 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.024 (0.017, 0.039) 0.023 (0.014, 0.04)
Niraparib count 133 133 133 133
time 34 (23, 52) 34 (23, 52) 34 (23, 52) 34 (23, 52)
n 15 (5, 38) 24 (11, 56) 19 (10, 38) 15 (8, 32)
post_p 0.36 (0.15, 0.47) 0.33 (0.12, 0.47) 0.37 (0.15, 0.47) 0.36 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.025 (0.017, 0.044) 0.022 (0.015, 0.032) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.015, 0.036)